This was a very enlightening read! As an American who had a very enjoyable conversation with a Canadian in the grocery store today I am of the opinion that most people understand that MAGA does not represent the majority of Americans and that majority is trying to figure out a way to rid the sickness from our country!
It is my hope that Ukraine is able to find solidarity in Europe to enable it to continue to stand for the democracy it deserves 🇺🇦
Thanks for your analysis and sharing some optimism!
I do hope that Europe comes out stronger and more united from this situation.
But I also have some doubts, since there has always been a difference between initial reactions/speeches and the resulting action when it comes to European initiatives in general, and the German role in specific.
After reading many over optimistic responses to the German election results, I wrote down my concerns:
You’re not alone, Simon. There seem to be at least a few of us here with similar doubts, alas. (I responded along these lines to another’s comment below.)
We need more realism, less wishful thinking here in Europe. Where has denial lead us thus far?
This piece flies in the face of many other analyses (not least the more balanced—bearish—assessments in the FT, Economist, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Times, the ECFR, Carnegie, Hoover, etc).
We can hope for the best, but I see nothing to be gained by denial. Perhaps because I’m German. The kids call this “hopium” in English I believe—although I wish I could be less of a realist myself.
I agree that we (and Germany more than any other European country) need to be realistic about the US and its current trajectory. There was indeed way too much wishful thinking that Trump would, in fact, end up being better on Ukraine than Biden, which I could never understand. But I think it’s not unrealistic to assume that Europe will rise to the occasion when forced to. After all the survival instinct is one of the strongest in human beings.
I share your pessimism about Germany but pessimism only helps if it triggers action. Apathy helps no one at this point. Take the example of Finland: it’s perhaps Europe’s most pessimistic nation, constantly obsessing over worst case scenarios. And thanks to that active pessimism, it’s one of Europe’s most well-prepared countries. My problem with Germany is that people often just give up before they’ve even tried. If something’s kaputt, it should be fixed.
Regrettably, I agree. We face tremendous constraints across Europe, and despite the polite talk of sudden harmony we remain as divided as ever beneath this verbal trompe-l’oeil. We were warned of this, yet still we did nothing in over a decade to Trump-proof the subcontinent.
We are confronting a grim concatenation of circumstances, to borrow a phrase from Joyce: our economies, militaries, infrastructure, politics, energy insecurity, productivity, declining universities, weak tech sector (vis-à-vis America/China), fragmented capital markets, hyper-regulation and demographics jointly conspire against our success.
That doesn’t make it impossible, of course, but so much would ultimately need to change. Perhaps too much for the body politic to stomach. Until I see much more concrete European action—not mere talk—I will continue to view Trump more as Antichrist than European saviour.
(Thank you Minna nonetheless for your perspective and this engaging piece.)
I have talked to many Americans the past years, smart educated people, but there is one thing they just can’t understand and that’s how strong the support for Ukraine is among ordinary European citizens and how «close» this conflict is in daily life. At peak of Ukraine refugee crisis almost 1 of 100 people living in Norway where a Ukranian refugee in other countries even more….
I think our Allies are going to save US. I applaud seeing Europe pulling together. I hadn’t thought an American might arrive in France as a refugee until I listened to Macron in Washington DC this week.
So glad to find this Substack essay in my inbox today. It's excellent! And the author writes so well and has a great understanding and knowledge of European politics and economics. I just subscribed, a bit $8/month that's really worth it.
Thanks - this was great analysis and exactly what should happen. Little beacon of hope really. Why in earth has Europe been hanging on to U.S so long like a deadwood anyway - I dont understand. Signs have been there all along. But there are certain obstacles or uncertainties on the way - one of major ones being unpredictability of internal political development in European countries and rise of the far right. Merz won but AfD is breathing down their neck.. and Linke did leap forward. What kind of European politics these parties will bring - were will they identify - we shall see.. and this does not only concern Germany.. but I really really hope we will finally will have stronger European identity and direction. Safest for all..
Exactly my idea - Putin believing his own propaganda (powerful Russia, non-existent Ukraine, decadent West, hopelessly divided NATO and EU) is being copied by Trump and the MAGA crowd (irrelevant EU/Europe, woke and weak societies, strong and relevant autocrats/dictators). Well done!
Oh, and wouldn't it be a good idea if all European governments got off main russian territorist state's information warfare platforms, notably Twitter and Facebook?
Your assessment of what has happened to Europe and Canada is spot on. Trump has done us a favour and boxed himself into a corner with Russia. He will not be able to share in minerals unless he drops his Kremlin controllers. That is good collective leadership against a man driven by money and the need for praise.
This was a very enlightening read! As an American who had a very enjoyable conversation with a Canadian in the grocery store today I am of the opinion that most people understand that MAGA does not represent the majority of Americans and that majority is trying to figure out a way to rid the sickness from our country!
It is my hope that Ukraine is able to find solidarity in Europe to enable it to continue to stand for the democracy it deserves 🇺🇦
Thanks for your analysis and sharing some optimism!
I do hope that Europe comes out stronger and more united from this situation.
But I also have some doubts, since there has always been a difference between initial reactions/speeches and the resulting action when it comes to European initiatives in general, and the German role in specific.
After reading many over optimistic responses to the German election results, I wrote down my concerns:
https://simonflesch.substack.com/p/germanys-election-a-reality-check?r=469gxl
You’re not alone, Simon. There seem to be at least a few of us here with similar doubts, alas. (I responded along these lines to another’s comment below.)
We need more realism, less wishful thinking here in Europe. Where has denial lead us thus far?
This piece flies in the face of many other analyses (not least the more balanced—bearish—assessments in the FT, Economist, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Times, the ECFR, Carnegie, Hoover, etc).
We can hope for the best, but I see nothing to be gained by denial. Perhaps because I’m German. The kids call this “hopium” in English I believe—although I wish I could be less of a realist myself.
I agree that we (and Germany more than any other European country) need to be realistic about the US and its current trajectory. There was indeed way too much wishful thinking that Trump would, in fact, end up being better on Ukraine than Biden, which I could never understand. But I think it’s not unrealistic to assume that Europe will rise to the occasion when forced to. After all the survival instinct is one of the strongest in human beings.
I share your pessimism about Germany but pessimism only helps if it triggers action. Apathy helps no one at this point. Take the example of Finland: it’s perhaps Europe’s most pessimistic nation, constantly obsessing over worst case scenarios. And thanks to that active pessimism, it’s one of Europe’s most well-prepared countries. My problem with Germany is that people often just give up before they’ve even tried. If something’s kaputt, it should be fixed.
Regrettably, I agree. We face tremendous constraints across Europe, and despite the polite talk of sudden harmony we remain as divided as ever beneath this verbal trompe-l’oeil. We were warned of this, yet still we did nothing in over a decade to Trump-proof the subcontinent.
We are confronting a grim concatenation of circumstances, to borrow a phrase from Joyce: our economies, militaries, infrastructure, politics, energy insecurity, productivity, declining universities, weak tech sector (vis-à-vis America/China), fragmented capital markets, hyper-regulation and demographics jointly conspire against our success.
That doesn’t make it impossible, of course, but so much would ultimately need to change. Perhaps too much for the body politic to stomach. Until I see much more concrete European action—not mere talk—I will continue to view Trump more as Antichrist than European saviour.
(Thank you Minna nonetheless for your perspective and this engaging piece.)
This is an awesome picure. Remember Putin sitting at his 15 m long white table with only one guest sitting on the other side.
And then lock at this picure. Tiny tables and a couple of people discussing, upper body bent forward...
This is in fact a great symbol for what is to come...
I have talked to many Americans the past years, smart educated people, but there is one thing they just can’t understand and that’s how strong the support for Ukraine is among ordinary European citizens and how «close» this conflict is in daily life. At peak of Ukraine refugee crisis almost 1 of 100 people living in Norway where a Ukranian refugee in other countries even more….
I think our Allies are going to save US. I applaud seeing Europe pulling together. I hadn’t thought an American might arrive in France as a refugee until I listened to Macron in Washington DC this week.
So glad to find this Substack essay in my inbox today. It's excellent! And the author writes so well and has a great understanding and knowledge of European politics and economics. I just subscribed, a bit $8/month that's really worth it.
Thank you so much ! I am very glad to hear.
Thanks - this was great analysis and exactly what should happen. Little beacon of hope really. Why in earth has Europe been hanging on to U.S so long like a deadwood anyway - I dont understand. Signs have been there all along. But there are certain obstacles or uncertainties on the way - one of major ones being unpredictability of internal political development in European countries and rise of the far right. Merz won but AfD is breathing down their neck.. and Linke did leap forward. What kind of European politics these parties will bring - were will they identify - we shall see.. and this does not only concern Germany.. but I really really hope we will finally will have stronger European identity and direction. Safest for all..
Exactly my idea - Putin believing his own propaganda (powerful Russia, non-existent Ukraine, decadent West, hopelessly divided NATO and EU) is being copied by Trump and the MAGA crowd (irrelevant EU/Europe, woke and weak societies, strong and relevant autocrats/dictators). Well done!
Oh, and wouldn't it be a good idea if all European governments got off main russian territorist state's information warfare platforms, notably Twitter and Facebook?
Your assessment of what has happened to Europe and Canada is spot on. Trump has done us a favour and boxed himself into a corner with Russia. He will not be able to share in minerals unless he drops his Kremlin controllers. That is good collective leadership against a man driven by money and the need for praise.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one is an entire volume...of hope...
MEGA!
Fantastic!
great read, sharp analysis
This was an excellent post and I am so looking forward to being a member and I’m subscribing today. I liked the comments by Anna Quinn.
This is so good
Thank you Nastya ❤️