If the orchs did try to attack Narva, the Finns and the Swedes would come to help beat the Russians. We have done it before just outside Narva the year 1700. Finland at the time was a part of Sweden as well as Estonia.
I am certain that nowdays there is a lot of trilateral information sharing between Estonia, Finland and Sweden. We all have an interest to keep an eye or two on Russia.
...Sweden was at the same time at war with Denmark and much of northern Germany you know. And the entire western Europe was having A Bit Of A Tiff over Spanish succession matters. Also Sweden would go on to get its ass comprehensively kicked by Russia at Poltava and its lunch money taken but good, ending the Swedish Empire.
So kind of a dubious parallel to invoke really.
Never mind now that dredging up horse-and-musket period hijinks is just dumb on its face. That was a whole different world - indeed, *several* whole different worlds ago.
The actually relevant point is that Sweden and Finland have every possible incentive to nip any Russian adventurism in the bud and while I'm not super confident in our sealift capabilities fighter jets cross the Baltic in minutes. And, yes, all the spy services are watching the Ruskis like hawks with insomnia issues and obsessive tendencies.
I'm Irish (and British) and live in Frsnce. You're an exemplar all these countries (perhaps especially the hypocritical 'neutral' Irish) urgently need to learn ftom - and emulate.
This is a fascinating article for those of us who live in European countries where there is very little sense among the population of being already involved in a low intensity but serious conflict with Russia. I live in the UK and despite the public warnings of the heads of our domestic and foreign intelligence services, the need to radically increase our defence capabilities has not yet secured active support form a majority of our politicians and citizens.
Good luck also with the podcast. I've watched and enjoyed two episodes and the content is interesting, well informed and thought provoking. Thank you.
Glad to hear it. History shows, we're not a war mongering nation, but when we do go to war, we stand by our allies. Afghanistan was the first time in our nations history, we left before the job was done. We were there for 12 years. We never lost a battle and the taliban respected us as opponents. Our equipment wasn't the best, but our Soldiers were. With no end game in site, it was time to come home.
We actually are now. Our Prime Minister is pushing big national projects as well as building up the military industry here. I'm hearing more and more about drones. That being said we are close to awarding contracts for new subs and aircraft. Not sure of the wisdom of doing that with air and sea drones.
Manpower is important of course for Estonia. More importantly drones, for offence and defence, is where it’s at. As long as Estonia and everywhere else in Europe have stockpiles of drones and missiles (for offence & defence) they will be well-positioned to take on Moscow.
In an interview published today, German defense and security expert Nico Lange warns against the well-known Russian strategy of launching a new military conflict if an existing conflict does not lead to the desired success.
What could NATO’s tactical response be to a Russian attack on Estonia, what should NATO’s response be, and what would NATO’s response at this point likely be? Are some of these answers known unknowns? And thanks for this detailed article, and thanks to the Estonians for their patriotism and realism.
I think you miss the point and may be distorting the data.
It doesn't matter if Narvans are pro-Estonia. If Russia wants to take Estonia, it will use the excuse of liberating Russians from Western depravity, whether they want to be liberated or not. Also, the very fact that Estonians of Russian extraction cling to the Russian language rather than the language of the land to which they claim allegiance is... interesting. It calls into question the responses to the surveys. As all Russians know, when surveyed, if you have half a brain, you provide the answer the surveyor wants.
Bear in mind that over half of the Narvans hold either Russian passports or refuse to naturalize as Estonians. Plenty of cover for little green men.
The point is that even if Russia used such a pretence, they likely wouldn’t succeed because Narvans wouldn’t welcome them with flowers, and because Estonia has the plans and capabilities to take care of any little green men who may show up.
Well here in Canada, we have A large French speaking minority, in a mostly English speaking country. They are Canadian and have their culture and language. In fact thats part of the strength that makes us Canadian, the French culture, among others.
All these ideas about a hybrid attack and an attempt to split NATO are absolute nonsense. It poses no serious threat to Europe and allows for further stalling tactics. I don't understand why this is even being discussed—it seems the topic is simply psychologically more comfortable for Europeans.
A disarming strike similar to Pearl Harbor is far more likely, given the concentrated and vulnerable nature of European military infrastructure and the situation where key Polish military bases are located within tens of kilometers of the border.
The Baltic countries are of no interest at all—the only player Russia needs to eliminate is Poland.
Now the consensus in Russia is that their main mistake was not seizing all of Ukraine back in 2014. It's clear that their gamble with Crimea and Donbas as political leverage has completely failed. It's foolish to think they haven't learned their lessons and will repeat the same pattern.
Therefore, if there is a war in Europe, it will immediately be aimed at eliminating the strongest opponents, not the weakest ones.
Glad to hear about the Estonian defense. I personally think Russia is a "paper tiger", which the Ukrainians have made clear. In any case, Estonia must be prepared, as NATO will take too long to come to their aid.
If the orchs did try to attack Narva, the Finns and the Swedes would come to help beat the Russians. We have done it before just outside Narva the year 1700. Finland at the time was a part of Sweden as well as Estonia.
I am certain that nowdays there is a lot of trilateral information sharing between Estonia, Finland and Sweden. We all have an interest to keep an eye or two on Russia.
...Sweden was at the same time at war with Denmark and much of northern Germany you know. And the entire western Europe was having A Bit Of A Tiff over Spanish succession matters. Also Sweden would go on to get its ass comprehensively kicked by Russia at Poltava and its lunch money taken but good, ending the Swedish Empire.
So kind of a dubious parallel to invoke really.
Never mind now that dredging up horse-and-musket period hijinks is just dumb on its face. That was a whole different world - indeed, *several* whole different worlds ago.
The actually relevant point is that Sweden and Finland have every possible incentive to nip any Russian adventurism in the bud and while I'm not super confident in our sealift capabilities fighter jets cross the Baltic in minutes. And, yes, all the spy services are watching the Ruskis like hawks with insomnia issues and obsessive tendencies.
I'm Irish (and British) and live in Frsnce. You're an exemplar all these countries (perhaps especially the hypocritical 'neutral' Irish) urgently need to learn ftom - and emulate.
I love the "Mildly Alarmed" episode! So nice to hear from people who live closer to and inside the Ukraine conflict. Thank you!
This is a fascinating article for those of us who live in European countries where there is very little sense among the population of being already involved in a low intensity but serious conflict with Russia. I live in the UK and despite the public warnings of the heads of our domestic and foreign intelligence services, the need to radically increase our defence capabilities has not yet secured active support form a majority of our politicians and citizens.
Good luck also with the podcast. I've watched and enjoyed two episodes and the content is interesting, well informed and thought provoking. Thank you.
Thanks a lot for reading and listening ! Great to hear ☺️
Super interesting, thank you.
Can you share what, if at all, the Estonians are doing to 'educate' or prepare their people in regards to different kinds of influence operations?
Good luck with the new podcast as well! looking forward to it.
Hello apologies for the very delayed response and thanks a lot for reading !
I feel like it warrants a whole own article how Estonia is preparing its citizens, but for example they have this app called ”be prepared”:
https://www.olevalmis.ee/en
Trump is pulling out of Europe. Fellow Europeans, it is time to feel the urgency of standing on our own feet against our adversaries.
Time to invite Canada back in. We had 2 nato bases in Lahr and Baden Baden, Germany until 1991. We can't replace the yanks, but we can show solidarity
I would rather be in a tight spot with Canada on my side than the US today.
Glad to hear it. History shows, we're not a war mongering nation, but when we do go to war, we stand by our allies. Afghanistan was the first time in our nations history, we left before the job was done. We were there for 12 years. We never lost a battle and the taliban respected us as opponents. Our equipment wasn't the best, but our Soldiers were. With no end game in site, it was time to come home.
Looks like much of the expensive equipment is no longer fit for purpose. This is the time to rethink and re-invest.
We actually are now. Our Prime Minister is pushing big national projects as well as building up the military industry here. I'm hearing more and more about drones. That being said we are close to awarding contracts for new subs and aircraft. Not sure of the wisdom of doing that with air and sea drones.
Manpower is important of course for Estonia. More importantly drones, for offence and defence, is where it’s at. As long as Estonia and everywhere else in Europe have stockpiles of drones and missiles (for offence & defence) they will be well-positioned to take on Moscow.
In an interview published today, German defense and security expert Nico Lange warns against the well-known Russian strategy of launching a new military conflict if an existing conflict does not lead to the desired success.
What could NATO’s tactical response be to a Russian attack on Estonia, what should NATO’s response be, and what would NATO’s response at this point likely be? Are some of these answers known unknowns? And thanks for this detailed article, and thanks to the Estonians for their patriotism and realism.
1. The US has been clear: the cavalry isn't coming
2. it would take NATO 45 days to deliver enough soldiers to Estonia to repel a Russian attack.
3. The French and the British would not go to war for Czechoslovakia, a country multiple times the size of Estonia and far more important to them.
4. NATO nations (other than a few smaller ones) will not provide Ukraine with more than life support resources out of fear of confronting Russia.
5. Many NATO nations still do a lot of business with and in Russia.
Res ipso loquiter.
That's a nice list of bullshit.
I think you miss the point and may be distorting the data.
It doesn't matter if Narvans are pro-Estonia. If Russia wants to take Estonia, it will use the excuse of liberating Russians from Western depravity, whether they want to be liberated or not. Also, the very fact that Estonians of Russian extraction cling to the Russian language rather than the language of the land to which they claim allegiance is... interesting. It calls into question the responses to the surveys. As all Russians know, when surveyed, if you have half a brain, you provide the answer the surveyor wants.
Bear in mind that over half of the Narvans hold either Russian passports or refuse to naturalize as Estonians. Plenty of cover for little green men.
The point is that even if Russia used such a pretence, they likely wouldn’t succeed because Narvans wouldn’t welcome them with flowers, and because Estonia has the plans and capabilities to take care of any little green men who may show up.
Well here in Canada, we have A large French speaking minority, in a mostly English speaking country. They are Canadian and have their culture and language. In fact thats part of the strength that makes us Canadian, the French culture, among others.
Carlo Masala doesn’t like this.😉
All these ideas about a hybrid attack and an attempt to split NATO are absolute nonsense. It poses no serious threat to Europe and allows for further stalling tactics. I don't understand why this is even being discussed—it seems the topic is simply psychologically more comfortable for Europeans.
A disarming strike similar to Pearl Harbor is far more likely, given the concentrated and vulnerable nature of European military infrastructure and the situation where key Polish military bases are located within tens of kilometers of the border.
The Baltic countries are of no interest at all—the only player Russia needs to eliminate is Poland.
Now the consensus in Russia is that their main mistake was not seizing all of Ukraine back in 2014. It's clear that their gamble with Crimea and Donbas as political leverage has completely failed. It's foolish to think they haven't learned their lessons and will repeat the same pattern.
Therefore, if there is a war in Europe, it will immediately be aimed at eliminating the strongest opponents, not the weakest ones.
Are they learning Ukrainian drone tactics?
Glad to hear about the Estonian defense. I personally think Russia is a "paper tiger", which the Ukrainians have made clear. In any case, Estonia must be prepared, as NATO will take too long to come to their aid.
Thank you.